India’s Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV) fleet has grown from 2 million in FY 2005 to 5.4 million today, but replacements haven’t kept pace—raising the average truck age to 10 years, the highest in 20 years. Stricter axle-load rules in 2018, BS‑VI cost hikes in 2020, and pandemic-related cash constraints have delayed fleet renewal.

From October 2024, vehicles older than 15 years must pass mandatory fitness tests or face scrappage, affecting about 1.1 million trucks. Despite incentives like tax waivers and OEM discounts, new truck costs (₹35–40 lakh) remain steep. Older trucks incur 5–7% higher diesel usage and double maintenance costs.

As capacity shrinks, spot freight rates on key lanes may rise 2–5%, with contract rates climbing 5–8% into FY 2026–27. Though expensive short-term, a large-scale replacement offers long-term gains in efficiency and road freight sustainability.