ICRA forecasts India’s commercial vehicle (CV) industry to report a modest 3–5% growth in wholesale volumes in FY2026, driven by infrastructure expansion, construction recovery, and replacement demand.

Medium and heavy CVs are expected to rise 0–3%, while LCVs may grow 3–5% on steady e-commerce demand. Bus volumes could see 8–10% growth, aided by government vehicle scrappage.

Key trends include rising replacement demand with ageing fleets, a shift toward higher-tonnage trucks, gradual adoption of CNG, LNG, and e-mobility—especially in buses—and regulatory pushes such as mandatory AC cabins from October 2025.

Despite competition from railways via dedicated freight corridors, strong government capex and highway projects are set to sustain long-term CV demand.